Global Raw Cashew Nut Market Outlook 2026–2027
India, Vietnam & Global RCN Trade Intelligence Report
Executive Summary
The global raw cashew nut (RCN) market is entering the 2026–2027 marketing year with tightening supply conditions, rising procurement competition, and sustained global demand for cashew kernels.
Major producing countries in West Africa — particularly Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Ghana, and Nigeria — are experiencing weather-related stress, while India and Vietnam remain the dominant processing and trading hubs driving international RCN trade.
This report analyzes global raw cashew nut supply, India RCN imports, Vietnam procurement trends, crop risk exposure, and price expectations for 2026–2027.
Global Raw Cashew Nut Supply Outlook (2026–2027)
West Africa: Core of Global RCN Trade
West Africa continues to account for the majority of global raw cashew nut exports. However, preliminary field assessments indicate that 2026 production may decline slightly compared to 2025 due to:
-
Reduced rainfall during flowering
-
Dry spells affecting nut formation
-
Quality inconsistencies in certain regions
Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
As the world’s largest raw cashew nut producer, Côte d’Ivoire plays a decisive role in global RCN pricing. Current projections suggest a potential 5–10% output reduction compared to the previous estimate of approximately 13 lakh metric tons.
Any further decline in Ivory Coast production will directly influence:
-
India RCN import prices
-
Vietnam raw cashew procurement
-
Global CIF and CNF market levels
Benin & Ghana
Benin and Ghana are reporting weather-induced crop stress. Ghana has implemented a minimum floor price of approximately USD 1 per kilogram for the 2025–2026 season, impacting export competitiveness and procurement dynamics for Indian and Vietnamese buyers.
East Africa: Tanzania & Mozambique
Tanzania is expected to record a stable and comparatively strong 2026 crop year. This provides partial balance to tightening West African supply. However, global availability remains constrained due to concentrated demand from India and Vietnam processing sectors.
India Raw Cashew Nut Market Outlook
India remains one of the largest importers of raw cashew nuts globally.
India RCN Imports (2025–2026)
Imports are projected to remain high at approximately 0.28–0.3 million metric tons in late 2025 and early 2026. This sustained import demand reflects:
-
Strong processing capacity utilization
-
Export commitments for cashew kernels
-
Domestic consumption growth
Indian Domestic Production
India’s domestic RCN output may decline slightly to around 0.78 million tons due to excess rainfall in some producing states.
Indian processors are currently managing:
-
Elevated raw cashew nut prices
-
Rising labor costs
-
Strong competition from Vietnam buyers
-
Margin pressure in export markets
India’s role in global RCN trade continues to influence benchmark pricing across West African origins.
Vietnam Raw Cashew Nut Procurement Trends
Vietnam remains the world’s leading cashew kernel exporter and a dominant buyer of West African raw cashew nuts.
Vietnam’s procurement strategy in 2026–2027 is expected to remain aggressive, particularly during early harvest months in West Africa.
Key drivers include:
-
High mechanized processing capacity
-
Export demand from the US, Europe, and China
-
Competitive bidding against Indian buyers
Vietnam’s buying patterns significantly impact global RCN FOB prices in Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana.
Global Raw Cashew Nut Price Forecast (2026)
The projected price trend indicates upward momentum during Q1 and Q2 of 2026 due to tighter supply conditions.
Historically, RCN prices peak between July and October during the lean season. With anticipated supply tightening, this seasonal peak may be more pronounced in 2026.
Kernel pricing outlook:
-
W320 cashew kernels in India projected to remain stable.
-
Supported by festive demand and steady international consumption
Price volatility will largely depend on:
-
West African weather developments
-
India & Vietnam procurement competition
-
Freight and logistics costs
Global Supply–Demand Balance
The global RCN supply-demand equation is narrowing.
While total production remains substantial, demand growth from:
-
India processing sector
-
Vietnam kernel exports
-
Middle East imports
-
European retail markets
-
Plant-based dairy alternative manufacturers
continues to absorb incremental supply efficiently.
This structural demand growth limits the possibility of significant price corrections even during peak harvest months.
Crop Risk Analysis: 2026–2027
Climate variability is now a structural factor in global raw cashew nut trade.
High risk exposure:
-
Côte d’Ivoire
-
Benin
Moderate risk:
-
Ghana
-
Nigeria
Lower risk:
-
Tanzania
-
Mozambique
-
Indonesia
Erratic rainfall patterns are creating:
-
Yield variability
-
Quality differentiation
-
Moisture-related grading differences
-
Wider price spreads between premium and lower-grade lots
Logistics & Trade Flow Constraints
Port congestion and freight volatility continue to influence short-term pricing.
Higher shipping costs between:
-
West Africa to India
-
West Africa to Vietnam
-
India/Vietnam to Middle East & Europe
may create temporary price spikes during tight supply periods.
Demand Drivers Supporting Global RCN Trade
Global cashew demand remains structurally strong due to:
-
Growth in plant-based dairy alternatives (cashew milk)
-
Protein-rich snack consumption
-
Premium nut retail expansion
-
Private-label growth in Europe
-
Health-conscious consumer behavior
This long-term consumption trend underpins market stability.
2026–2027 Market Conclusion
The global raw cashew nut market is entering a “Supply Tightening” phase characterized by:
-
Reduced West African output
-
Strong India and Vietnam import demand
-
Sustained kernel consumption globally
-
Higher average RCN prices compared to 2025
-
Increased volatility during early and lean seasons
Market participants should prepare for:
-
Competitive sourcing conditions
-
Price-sensitive procurement windows
-
Quality-focused buying decisions
-
Increased importance of reliable suppliers